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The new beast slouching toward Bethlehem
Some Middle East wars create breakthroughs for peace; Gaza won't.
By Aaron David Miller
Those who believe in the peace process tooth fairy may hope that, after Israel gives Hamas a good whack, the prospects for serious negotiations will improve, particularly under a more committed Obama administration. This isn't likely in the near term.
Israel's prerequisite for ending the conflict with the Palestinians -- a reformed or weakened Hamas or an emboldened Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, ready to meet Israel's needs and requirements -- is now more elusive than ever. As long as the Palestinian house remains divided, with Hamas strong and Abbas weak, the chances of a conflict-ending Israeli-Palestinian agreement are slim to none. Should Hamas survive its war with Israel in Gaza, such an agreement will remain more elusive than ever.
Beyond the tick tock of the current fighting lies an undeniable reality: only a political deal will end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. And right now there are many obstacles standing in the way, including divisions within Israel and big gaps between the parties on the conflict's core issues: borders, refugees, and the future of Jerusalem, among others.
But looming largest is the crisis that confronts the Palestinian national movement. It is a badly shattered humpty-dumpty -- two polities, two armies, two ideologies, two sets of patrons -- and putting it back together again does not look hopeful. Nor do the prospects for fostering the unity Palestinians require to negotiate with Israel, monopolize the use of violence in their society, or even struggle successfully for a Palestinian state.
Without a unified Palestinian house, what Israeli Prime Minister would make existential concessions to a Palestinian leader who doesn't control all the guns? And what Palestinian leader could even begin to make the kinds of concessions that peace with Israel will require without the authority and legitimacy that derives from the support of most Palestinians? At present, if Israel wants peace and quiet for its southern towns and cities or the return of its kidnapped soldier, Gilad Shalit, it goes to Hamas not to Abbas. And yet Israel and the United States look to Abbas to deliver a political settlement.
Pressing Hamas to recognize Israel's right to exist and abandon terror and violence are reasonable and legitimate. But Israel should have no illusions here. It took Israel and Fatah, the secular manifestation of Palestinian nationalism, almost thirty years to work out a modus vivendi, which is still only in its preliminary phase. Indeed, many in Fatah still question Israel's identity as a Jewish state and support armed struggle. So how long might it take Israel and Hamas, the religious manifestation of Palestinian nationalism?
The current war will only lengthen this timeline. In the wake of the death and devastation caused by the ongoing fighting, Palestinian anger (both in Gaza and the West Bank) is likely to be directed at Israel, the United States, Abbas, and only then at Hamas. The Hezbollah precedent is far from perfect, but if Hamas survives the full brunt of an Israeli assault and emerges still capable of launching rockets into Israel, this would be a tremendous victory. Hamas' power and prestige will likely grow. And it can always count on the combination of Abbas's fecklessness, Israeli settlement and occupation practices, and the U.S. bias toward Israel to help it maintain its relevance and influence.
With apologies to Yeats, one has to wonder in the wake of the Gaza war, what new and nasty beast is slouching toward Bethlehem waiting to be born.
Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East negotiator under Republican and Democratic administrations, is a Public Policy Scholar at the Woodrow Wilson Center and author of The Much Too Promised Land: America's Elusive Search for Arab-Israeli Peace.
MAHMUD HAMS/AFP/Getty Images


Rejectionism versus pragmatism
What is often not stated clearly - you get at it but not to it - is that Hamas has a consistent philosophical position. It is rooted in religious fundamentalism but it operates more like Marxism under Stalin, as a theory which leads to this then that and then that with no room for argument.
So, in the Hamas philosophy, you have the complete non-acceptance of the Zionist entity. Not even the word "Israel" exists. Anyone who treats Israel as real is a traitor, much as a Trotskyite would be executed as a turncoat by a Stalinist. Fatah's relative pragmatism means it betrays not only certain Islamist ideals but that is like the worst form of cancer within the body, of the type which prevents the body from succeeding in its goals. It's sick but this is how they think.
It is in this context, not feudal clan divisions, that Fatah and Hamas hate each other. Their differences can be solved only by one giving up, by Fatah joining Hamas or by Hamas disintegrating.
Second, the Arab world turns defeats into victories on a regular basis. The Egyptians were destroyed in the 1972 War but they celebrate it as a victory because they attacked successfully in the first hours across the Suez. Hizbollah similarly created a straw man of the invincible Israeli soldier so that killing some meant victory - when even an Arab apologist (and Lebanese resident) like Robert Fisk notes that it certainly doesn't look like victory when you drive around and see Lebanon. If the game is somehow controlling how Arab masses lie to themselves about the real world so they believe they won conflicts they actually lost, then you've defined an impossible task. (This revision of loss into victory applies equally in the Arab world to other conflicts not involving Israel, but this is not the place for an extended discussion.)
A more realistic task is visible right now: anyone see rockets being fired from Lebanon into Israel to help Hamas? Anyone see Syrian tanks lined up at the border ready to invade? Anyone even see Nasrullah in public anymore as he moves from bunker to bunker to evade the IAF?
Third, to return to the first point, it has become fashionable to say that Hamas wins by resisting - and to say that Abbas has delivered nothing - but that is rhetoric. Look instead at the reality on the ground. The people of the West Bank now have restaurants, cafes, schools, jobs and a growing economy. They are taking control of their own security - which is viewed by Hamas not only as collusion but as treason for dealing with the Zionists. Think they want to trade that for the life of Gaza? There is a vast difference in the Arab world between what is said and what is actually done. The moderates are delivering peace and prosperity. The rhetoric may be about resistance and martyrdom but words are not actions, certainly not in that culture.
Fourth, to make the point about words, imagine if Israel spoke as the Arabs do. Imagine an Israeli PM speaking like Nasrullah or as Meshaal. It would be outrageous, unimaginable even for a Westerner to talk in such terms. Remember Baghdad Bob and his absurd assertions about Iraqi victories even as the US forces cut into Baghdad?
So, in the Hamas philosophy,
So, in the Hamas philosophy, you have the complete non-acceptance of the Zionist entity. Not even the word "Israel" exists.
I think you make far too much of this. After all, for a very long time israelis insisted there was no palestine and no palestinians. There were only "arab refugees". "The arabs have vastly more land than we do, they should resettle their own refugees among themselves." It was only with the intifada that israel decided there were palestinians after all.
And consider israel's long-standing habit of killing palestinian policemen and then insisting that palestinians police themselves. Bricks without straw.
You blame the powerless for taking extreme philosophical positions -- perhaps if they had something to lose they would be more pragmatic. But as it stands, what does pragmatism get them?
3 State Solution?
I am struck by a provcative position that was offered by former US UN Ambassador John Bolton. While I know that he is pretty much considered persona non grata by many, what do people think of his idea that:
" we should look to a "three-state" approach, where Gaza is returned to Egyptian control and the West Bank in some configuration reverts to Jordanian sovereignty. Among many anomalies, today's conflict lies within the boundaries of three states nominally at peace. Having the two Arab states re-extend their prior political authority is an authentic way to extend the zone of peace and, more important, build on governments that are providing peace and stability in their own countries. "International observers" or the like cannot come close to what is necessary; we need real states with real security forces."
As Bolton states, this is not going to be something Egypt or Jordan clamors for, however, how can the Palestinians ever negotiate so long as there is the Hamas-Fatah split? How can Israel trust any Palestinian interlocuter? Stability and assemblance of an improved life would appear to be the only hope for the Palestinians. Only when rage no longer burns can peace be considered. Until then, it will continue to be a danse macabre in the Gaza Strip and maybe beyond.
Only when rage no longer
Only when rage no longer burns can peace be considered.
"The floggings will continue until morale improves."
Between Distortion and Facts
I would qualify your article as of a propagandist and banal nature. It is strange to see how mainstream “scholars” or rather propagandists lacking scholarly qualities in this field in the US, who have a considerable influence on the US Middle East Policy, make the public opinion in the wrong direction by distorting all available data.
While you blame Hamas for denying “Israel's right to exist” and “abandon terror and violence”, you successfully failed to say that Israel does not recognize Palestine State or Palestinian Identity either and all its policy, whether military, political or cultural, has been directed at denying such identity and statehood within the last 60 years. You neither mention the terror, violence, war crimes, genocide and other international crimes being committed by Israel against the Palestinians, the naked example of the current racist extermination of Palestinians in Gaza.
It is regrettable that Foreign Policy Magazine has been turned into an Israeli propaganda tool by your or the likes’ virtuous role.