Posted By Claude Berrebi Share

How terrorist attacks created the unlikely rise of Avigdor Lieberman.

By Claude Berrebi

This week's Israeli election has yet again failed to produce a clear winner. Still, the results do spotlight two notable trends. First, the Hamas attacks that prompted Israel's war in Gaza, and the war's aftermath, have moved the Israeli political center further toward the right. Second, in the Holy Land, as in most parts of the world, where you stand depends in large part on where you live -- in this case, whether your city or town was recently hit by a suicide bombing or a missile fired by Hamas or Hezbollah.

Voters in areas that recently experienced attacks sharply shifted their allegiance toward right-wing parties. For example, in the town of Sderot, which was heavily damaged by missiles fired by Hamas militants in Gaza, polls show support for Likud rose from 10 percent in 2006 to 33 percent in 2009, and Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu and other right-wing parties also gained sharply. Support for the dovish Labor Party collapsed from 12 percent in 2006 to just 5 percent this year. A similar swell in the right-wing vote was seen in Jerusalem, which has historically suffered more terrorist attacks than anywhere else in Israel.

However, in secular Tel Aviv, which wasn't rocketed during the Gaza or Lebanon wars, Kadima increased its support and won a plurality of the votes, while Likud and Yisrael Beiteinu scored relatively small gains.

These results are consistent with historical patterns. Research has shown that a terrorist attack conducted shortly before an election increases the vote in that area for right-wing Israeli parties by 1.35 percentage points. That may seem small, but in Israel's fractured system, a few terrorist attacks in the months leading up to an election are often enough to propel the conservative parties to victory.

The trend holds true in this election as well. The unsuccessful war in Lebanon in 2006, followed by the barrage of missiles fired from Gaza into southern Israeli towns, persuaded the Israeli public that the current government was unable to protect them.

In national tracking polls, Likud was leading strongly before the Gaza war, and Kadima managed to win back some support with its aggressive handling of the Gaza war. The biggest winner by far, however, was Lieberman. Hawkish voters who thought that the government ended the Gaza war prematurely warmed to his tougher approach.

It can be said, then, that Hamas played a critical role in thrusting Lieberman, known for his hard line toward Israeli Arabs, into the role of kingmaker for the new Israeli government. Yisrael Beiteinu's 15 seats mean that both Likud and Kadima will be tempted to court Lieberman's support.

His ascent will reduce the chances that Israel's new prime minister will be willing to make concessions to the Palestinians, but in the short term, it could actually force Hamas into a deal. Negotiations are ongoing over the release of abducted Israeli army soldier Gilad Shalit and the status of the smuggling tunnels that run under Gaza into Egypt. Hamas might well conclude that it can to get a better deal from the outgoing Ehud Olmert government than from the incoming one, no matter who heads it.

Livni and Netanyahu would both be likely to talk with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and President Bashir al-Assad of Syria about peace prospects, but Lieberman's presence in any governing coalition would make it doubtful that they would make any concessions on the status of Jerusalem, the Golan Heights, or stopping settlements.

This election is likely a setback for U.S. President Barack Obama's peacemaking agenda and certainly spotlights the shortcomings of the Israeli electoral system, which desperately needs reform. Yet it does broadly reflect the prevailing sentiment among the Israeli public -- that giving up land for peace has been unsuccessful and has weakened Israel. Above all, it shows that once the dust settles, Middle East peacemakers will have to reckon with the increasingly hawkish and ever more fractious Israeli electorate.

Claude Berrebi is an economist at the Rand Corporation.

 

SETH EDENBAUM

5:14 AM ET

February 14, 2009

Did Hamas Create Avigdor Lieberman?

Perhaps. After Israel created Hamas
Uri Avnery:

After all, it is no secret that it was the Israeli government which set up Hamas to start with. When I once asked a former Shin-Bet chief, Yaakov Peri, about it, he answered enigmatically: “We did not create it, but we did not hinder its creation.”
For years, the occupation authorities favoured the Islamic movement in the occupied territories. All other political activities were rigorously suppressed, but their activities in the mosques were permitted. The calculation was simple and naive: at the time, the Palestine Liberation Organization was considered the main enemy, Yasser Arafat was the current Satan. The Islamic movement was preaching against the PLO and Arafat, and was therefore viewed as an ally.

Steven Zunes

Hamas, an acronym for Harakat al-Muqawama al-Islamiyya (Islamic Resistance Movement), was founded in 1987 by Sheik Ahmed Yassin, who had been freed from prison when Israel conquered the Gaza Strip 20 years earlier. Israel's priorities in suppressing Palestinian dissent during this period were revealing: In 1988, Israel forcibly exiled Palestinian activist Mubarak Awad, a Christian pacifist who advocated the use of Gandhian-style resistance to the Israeli occupation and Israeli-Palestinian peace, while allowing Yassin to circulate anti-Jewish hate literature and publicly call for the destruction of Israel by force of arms.

Israel created Hamas. The occupation created Hamas. Zionist liberals who refused to take the Palestinians seriously, offering only pity and not respect, created Hamas. A refusal of the responsibilities of memory on the part of people such as Claude Berrebi created Hamas. Lies created Hamas.

 

TESS

11:59 AM ET

February 14, 2009

Extremist elements and empowerment....

Extremist elements exist in all societies. They are empowered when the people of that nation feel strained by conflict or under such pressures.

It is sad, but both societies have been very bi-polarized. I have argued long that the issue with American policies is that they neglect true evaluation of the internal systems and the level of radicalization of both societies, even before Oslo.

Equally, the crazy policies of both sides are a reflection of their understanding of the other's history. Basically, they are byproducts of each nations propaganda and are entirely out of touch with the actual perceptions of their enemy. So, we find ourselves in this spiral and pointing fingers.

The truth is Israeli threat perceptions is not in proportion to its current level of power in the system, and that is based on its people's history. (Which I will add as an aside, is why it should get a just peace now while the power differential is in their favor.) We cannot alter a people's thinking pattern, only understand it. So, yes, given the relative power quotient, this article makes no sense that when they are starving a people and exercising basic total control over them, the Israelis feel threatened by them and wonders why the Gazans have tried to bite like a cornered dog.

Yet, it is perfectly sensible if you consider the cognition of many Israeli people. I find it depends very much on their perception of their history. Many, though not all, perceive their socialization as a reason to perceive threat everywhere. Jewish commemorations accent their lives lived in threat from the days of Egyptian enslavement, to the commemorations annually of their near persecution in Babylon on Purim, to the Inquisitions, Pogroms, and Holocaust. I think the lessons understood of these events change, depending on the perception of threat, and cyclically, accents that threat in the light of the history.

I will add for posterity, Israelis make the same mistakes in their understanding and policy formation vis-a-vis Palestinians as well.

 

SHER MOHAMMAD

9:25 AM ET

February 15, 2009

Israel's fragility and illegitimacy.

Here is text of a sacred oath thatis self-explanatory:
"“We have been forsworn by G'd "not to enter the Holy Land as a body before the predestined time", "not to rebel against the nations", to be loyal citizens, not to do anything against the will of any nation or its honour, not to seek vengeance, discord, restitution or the deer and the antelope in the forest," and the redemption will be delayed. (Talmud Tractate Ksuobs compensation; "not to leave exile ahead of time." On the contrary; we have to be humble and accept the yoke of exile. To violate the oaths would result in "your flesh will be made prey as 111). To violate the oaths is not only a sin, it is a heresy because it is against the fundamentals of our Belief.”

The Jewish people in "Naturei Kara" a New York bases anti-Zionist body disclaims creation mof Israel as being a profane state and its very creation isagainst Torah both for done during exileand more so for waging violence and bloodshed in the holy land.

 

SHER MOHAMMAD

9:25 AM ET

February 15, 2009

Israel's fragility and illegitimacy.

Here is text of a sacred oath thatis self-explanatory:
"“We have been forsworn by G'd "not to enter the Holy Land as a body before the predestined time", "not to rebel against the nations", to be loyal citizens, not to do anything against the will of any nation or its honour, not to seek vengeance, discord, restitution or the deer and the antelope in the forest," and the redemption will be delayed. (Talmud Tractate Ksuobs compensation; "not to leave exile ahead of time." On the contrary; we have to be humble and accept the yoke of exile. To violate the oaths would result in "your flesh will be made prey as 111). To violate the oaths is not only a sin, it is a heresy because it is against the fundamentals of our Belief.”

The Jewish people in "Naturei Kara" a New York bases anti-Zionist body disclaims creation mof Israel as being a profane state and its very creation isagainst Torah both for done during exileand more so for waging violence and bloodshed in the holy land.

 

AMORIAH

8:34 PM ET

February 15, 2009

Did Hamas Create Avigdor Lieberman

It was the Israeli Arab leadership's radicalism that created Avigdor Lieberman more than Hamas. There are plenty of right-wing parties in Israel to react to Palestinian terror by taking a negative stand on the land for peace formula. It took the radicalization of the Arab/Israelis, their support of Hamas, and their mounting anti-Israel sentiments to create the need for Israel Beitenu. The Israeli Supreme Court -- by overturning the decision of the Central Elections Committee to ban the Arab political parties of Balad and Ta'al-- also contributed to the rise in popularity of Lieberman. Lieberman is not against land for peace -- he is willing to make concessions on land as long as they guarantee that the Arabs of the "triangle" will end up in the new State of Palestine and not in Israel and the ones who stay in Israel are loyal to the State and not to its enemies.

 

FRIEDCO

11:03 AM ET

February 24, 2009

What do you Expect????

It is reasonable to expect that when your enemy has publicly sworn to kill you, to destroy your country and to commit genocide upon your co-religionists all over the world -- some will vote in favor of a leader who stresses defense over dialogue.

I am an ordinary citizen of Israel with children and grandchildren. I am not a leader or a policy maker. When younger, I served as an ordinary soldier in the Army Reserves. I am not unique or special – just an ordinary and faceless person – similar to all the other ordinary and faceless people in Israel and in Palestine.

I am in favor of a two state solution - one that envisages a completely independent Jewish State and completely independent Palestinian State. In that, I am joined by an overwhelming majority of the Israeli electorate.

Hamas envisages the destruction of Israel, the eradication of the Jewish people and the annihilation of the Jewish residents of Israel.

In that, they are joined by the overwhelming majority of the Palestinian electorate.

Your readers should understand once and for all that even the ordinary and faceless Jews will not silently march to the slaughterhouse. Those days are over!!!